Third Wave ‘Unlikely To Be As Severe’ Than The Second: ICMR Study

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Origin of SARS-CoV-2


  • NET Web Desk

A study titled ‘Plausibility of the third wave of Covid-19 in India: A mathematical modeling based analysis’ found that the substantial impending third wave of COVID-19 might not be as severe as the second wave.

It is conducted by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) in collaboration with the Imperial College of London. Published on Friday, June 25 in the peer-reviewed Indian Journal of Medical Research, the study is based on mathematical modeling analysis.

According to the Hindustan Times report, this study portrays that a more highly transmissible variant would have to cross the reproduction number threshold of 4.5 to cause the third wave of coronavirus epidemic in India.

It highlighted the importance of mass vaccination drive and termed it the safest way to help build immunity against the deadly virus and for all the impending future strains.

“This study demonstrates plausible mechanisms by which a substantial third wave could occur, while also illustrating that it is unlikely for any such resurgence to be as large as the second wave. Model projections are, however, subject to several uncertainties, and it remains important to scale up vaccination coverage.” – the study added.

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